Championship Odds
Fall 2026 · Eastern Division — week-over-week championship likelihood, modeled from historical pedigree, win percentage, score differential, streaks, runs scored, and remaining schedule strength.
Likelihood Over Time
Each line represents a team's estimated probability of winning the Eastern Division championship
- EFB - Team 5
- EFB - Team 1
- EFB - Team 3
- EFB - Team 8
- EFB - Team 7
- EFB - Team 4
- EFB - Team 6
- EFB - TEAM 2
Current Championship Odds
After 3 weeks of play
| # | Team | Odds | Record | Proj Record | Schedule | Run Diff | Streak | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFB - Team 5 | 77.7% | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1 left opp 75% | +13 | W2 | - | |
| 2 | EFB - Team 1 | 15.8% | 1-0-1 | 1-1 | 1 left opp 100% | +19 | - | - |
| 3 | EFB - Team 3 | 5.0% | 0-0-1 | 2-0 | 2 left opp 0% | 0 | - | - |
| 4 | EFB - Team 8 | 0.5% | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3 left opp 17% | 0 | - | - |
| 5 | EFB - Team 7 | 0.5% | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3 left opp 17% | 0 | - | - |
| 6 | EFB - Team 4 | 0.5% | 0-1 | 0-3 | 2 left opp 50% | -1 | L1 | - |
| 7 | EFB - Team 6 | 0.0% | 0-1 | 0-3 | 2 left opp 50% | -19 | L1 | - |
| 8 | EFB - TEAM 2 | 0.0% | 0-1 | 0-3 | 2 left opp 50% | -12 | L1 | - |
How This Works
Each team's championship likelihood is recalculated after every week of games using a weighted power score, then normalized across all Eastern Division teams so the odds always sum to 100%.
Historical Pedigree
Past championships (+15), Buck Cups (+8), and previous season win% (up to +10). Sets the preseason baseline.
Projected Win Rate
Current results blended with expected wins from remaining schedule. The heaviest weight in the model.
Score Differential
Average run margin per game. Rewards dominant wins over narrow ones.
Streak & Runs Scored
Active win/loss streak (+3/-3 per game) and offensive output (runs per game).
Remaining Schedule
Each remaining game is projected as a win/loss using a logistic model comparing the team's win rate to their opponent's. Easier paths (lower opponent win%) boost the projected record.
For fun only - not an official DSL ranking. Model is a simple heuristic, not a simulation.